Squaring the Culture

"...and I will make justice the plumb line, and righteousness the level;
then hail will sweep away the refuge of lies,
and the waters will overflow the secret place."
Isaiah 28:17

07/28/2008 (7:35 pm)

Here's Why It's Close

Allahpundit at Hot Air notes recent polls by Gallup and Rasmussen showing not only that Obama did not receive a significant bounce in the polls from his European trip, but one even showing that McCain is leading among likely voters.

And Michael Barone explains
why that might be. The chart below tells the story succinctly. I’m sorry it’s a bit blurry, but if you click on the image you’ll get the .pdf file with the original image in it; the chart appears on page 2.

It’s a comparison between March and July of who’s certain to vote. Notice that Democrats who say they’re certain to vote have dropped, while Republicans who say they’re certain to vote have remained unchanged. Notice how many of those voters who no longer say they’re certain to vote are in the youngest demographic, where Obama leads by the largest margin.

I think it’s fairly straightforward and simple to understand. The kids who came out for Obama were excited by the prospect of a politician who “doesn’t suck.” When Obama began switching his positions on nearly everything to play to the middle, they realized he was just another politician, said “F*** it,” and decided there was no point in voting. They may come back, we don’t know, but if you recall, Obama seemed to have lost the ability to win a primary near the end of the primary season; Obama wears thin pretty quickly. If he’s counting on young voters to stick with him for the long haul, he may be disappointed.

Barone’s article discusses states with unusually large groups of either elderly or young voters. I suggest you keep your eyes on Pennsylvania. Obama pretty much has to win Pennsylvania to win the election, and there’s a very, very good chance he won’t. Pennsylvania has two large cities run by Democratic machines, and the rest of the state is Republican. Hillary Clinton had a lot of support in PA, and there’s a large fraction of her supporters, around 23% so far, who won’t support Obama. PA has an aging population (youngsters are leaving the state) which favors McCain. And sadly, PA is one of the more racist states in the union, so the Bradley effect is likely to eat Obama’s lunch there. The result will be a weaker-than-usual showing for Obama in the big cities, and PA will fall to McCain. I won’t call that a sure thing, but it’s the way it looks today.

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