Plumb Bob Blog

01/21/2008 (7:55 am)

After South Carolina

Fred Thompson is, sadly, out, in everything but name. When he entered the race back in July, he polled as well as McCain is polling now, but he did nothing to keep that level of support. His South Carolina campaign did too little, too late. Exit the only solid conservative in the race who ever had a chance.

Michelle Malkin crows that Huckabee is out, but he’s not. South Carolina was disappointing for him, but he was a close second, and won among issues voters. Thompson’s surge took votes from Huckabee; if Thompson drops out, most of his votes will flow back to him. He still has a national following, and should garner delegates on Super Tuesday.

McCain is doing well among everybody who’s not a social conservative. So far, he’s not had to run against Giuliani. Florida will be an interesting test for both.

It’s possible for McCain to break the primaries wide open; we’ll know by Feb 6. If he doesn’t — and I don’t think he will — we’re in for a brokered Republican convention.

In my dreams, the convention remains deadlocked for 4 days, then turns to Newt Gingrich. Gingrich is the clearest thinker in the Republican party, and could possibly make a good President. It won’t happen, but a guy can dream, can’t he?

The alternative is depressing. Everybody’s racing to prove how conservative he is, so the voters must still be conservative; but the winner is going to be a moderate.