Squaring the Culture

A great deal of chatter about Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin has been based on the premise that John McCain is likely to die in office. This strikes me as nonsense; by far the most likely outcome is that Palin will chair the Senate and meet with second-tier dignitaries for 4 or 8 years, if elected.

The concerns about McCain’s health always mention national averages, but that’s a pretty serious error that nobody who understands statistics should make. The average American male lives to 76.2 years, as of 2006. Does that mean it’s likely that McCain, who just turned 72, will keel over in 4.2 years? Not at all. One of the first things you learn in Statistics is that you cannot use general population statistics to predict the outcome of a specific, individual case.

Why can’t you? Well, for one thing, there are all sorts of causal variables that get mixed into a general population. That average age of 76.2 includes babies who died of Sudden Infant Death Syndrome, American military personnel who died in combat, crack addicts, victims of HIV, victims of automobile accidents, suicides, etc. Since McCain obviously is not an instance of any of those, they have no value in predicting his longevity — even though they’re mixed into the average age statistic.

When you’re looking at an individual case, the most important factors are genes and lifestyle. McCain smoked for 25 years, so cancer is a concern, but quitting does reduce the long-term risk. Aside from the stress of high office and a lot of flying, McCain leads a relatively safe life; he’s not likely to starve to death or die in a cholera epidemic. He’s not seriously overweight, so diabetes is probably not a significant risk. I don’t know much about his diet and exercise regimen, but he looks pretty fit.

The genetic factor is truly the most important, and there we have a mixed bag worth considering. McCain’s mother is a steely-eyed 96, and most of us will do well to look and act as healthy when we’re 76. He’s got freakin’ great genes on that side of his family. On the other hand, McCain’s father’s family had loads of heart disease, and several of them died fairly young. So the question is, are the genes affecting heart health from his father’s side dominant or recessive?

The information the McCain campaign released in May indicates that he has slightly elevated cholesterol, but no signs of arterial constriction in the head and neck that might signal susceptibility to stroke, which claimed his father at age 70. It also says he shows no signs of the most common health effects of smoking, namely lung cancer and reduced lung capacity.

Good health, good habits, and great genes; what we should expect from Sen. McCain is that he’ll take at least 4 years’ presidency in stride, and keep on sailing into the foreseeable future. The likelihood of a President Palin is small before 2016, and even smaller before 2012. National averages don’t mean a thing.

Photo from YouTube clip of a WMUR-TV interview with Roberta and John McCain. WMUR is an affiliate of ABC in New Hampshire. I do not know the name of the host.