This November, Connecticut’s ballot for the Senate seat currently held by Joe Lieberman (D, Ct) will pit Democrat newcomer Ned Lamont against Republican challenger Alan Schlesinger, with Senator Lieberman running as an Independent. Lieberman lost the Democrat primary.
Many Democrats are exultant. Lamont ran against the war in Iraq, you see. They see his victory as indication that the entire nation will vote against Bush’s policy this November; we’ll all lynch our Republican Senators and Congressmen and vote for Democrats instead, because we’re all so disgusted with Bush’s War in Iraq. They repeatedly cite Bush’s negative approval ratings (just over 40% approve of the way he’s handling his job), the general disapproval of his conduct of the Iraq war (60% say they disapprove), and Lamont’s victory as harbingers of a MASSIVE shift toward Democrats.
Democrats are good at blowing smoke up their own skirts, the required contortions for which I leave to your imaginations.
First, there’s the electoral math: In Connecticut, only about 35% of voters register Democrat. But isn’t Connecticut a “blue state,” you ask? It is; but nearly half the voters register “Unaffiliated.” The breakdown is roughly 45% unaffiliated, 35% Democrat, 20% Republican (according to Ct State Secretary Susan Bysiewicz, quoted in the Hartford Courant). There was a rush of independents registering Democrat to vote in the primary, adding maybe another 3 percentage points to the “D” slice of the pie. Lamont won in the primary by 52% to Lieberman’s 48%. So, 52% of 38% of Connecticut’s voters were angry enough about the war to throw out their influential Senator and vote for Ned Nobody — or roughly 20% of the voters. In a Very Blue State.
Yes, I think the Democrats can easily rally 20% of the nation’s electorate to chant anti-Bush slogans with gusto; but that’s not a major electoral shift. It’s not even a surprise. They were able to do that on November 7, 2000, and again on November 9, 2004; see what it bought them.
Then, there’s the question of what the numbers mean, and the fact is, they don’t mean much at all. Most non-Presidential elections are local, and turn on local issues and local reputations. Voters vote for who they think will protect the local military base, maintain the federal highways that run through the state, fund the waterfront reclamation project, and be their lackey in Washington. Sometimes a major national issue intrudes, but not often.
60% of Americans disapprove of a 4-year-long war; that’s as shocking as 80-degree-temperatures in summer. That 60% includes some who think our mistake was not nuking Baghdad, and many who are tired of the war but not of their Representative. Activists read the numbers to mean 60% of the nation feels like the activists do, which is hilariously wrong; they’ll be lucky if it’s really 20%.
The real indicator is how the politicians vote when the public is watching. You see, Reuters, CBS, and AP publish polls for the public, but politicians don’t trust those numbers; they know they’re biased crap. Politicians hire their own professionals to get accurate reads. And when Congress votes whether the US should withdraw immediately from Iraq, or even set a final date for withdrawal, barely 10% vote for it. It’s happened twice, now. That’s not an accident. Our representatives know that the hard-line anti-war bunch isn’t big enough to threaten their seats.
The other indicator is Chameleon Hillary. Hillary Clinton never positions herself according to principle, because she has none, but that makes her a great predictor of what political insiders are saying. If you see Hillary abandoning her new, “Centrist” persona, you can bet that focus groups are showing hard support for anti-war candidates. She hasn’t yet.
Even Lieberman won’t lose his seat. The same Quinnipiac University poll that accurately predicted the 52-48 margin in the primary, predicted that a three-way race between Lieberman, Lamont, and Schesinger would be won by Lieberman: Lieberman 51%, Lamont 27%, Schlesinger 9%. A lot can change in the next three months ’till the election, but don’t expect that one to change much. Lieberman should win.
The Democrats are actually skonking themselves. Some Representatives might take harder anti-war positions to firm up their Democrat bases; to the extent that they do, they’ll solidify the Peacenik image the Democrats have fought so hard to escape. This won’t hurt them much in November — the elections are mostly local, after all — but will kill them when the nation selects its next President in 2008, in light of the Islamo-Fascists who will still be threatening.
My prediction for this November: expect the Democrats to gain a dozen or so seats in the House, and maybe three in the Senate. Neither house of Congress will have a Democrat majority. And don’t be too horribly shocked if the Republicans actually GAIN a few seats; if I’m off, it’s in that direction.
My other prediction is, the Democrats will congratulate themselves a LOT, until after the voting. And then they’ll cry “Fraud!” Democrats are predictable.